Hey, everyone else is playing the MMO prognostications game. Can we play, too? Read on for WorldIV’s predictions for each of MMORPG.com’s most anticipated MMO for 2009.

• Runes of Magic
• Aion
• Champions Online
• Chronicles of Spellborn
• Darkfall
• Earthrise
• Jumpgate Evolution
• Stargate Worlds

Runes of Magic

There are approximately 8 hojillion free MMO out there, but, with the exception of Runescape and Dofus, none have really grabbed the spotlight.

I’ve never deeply invested myself in a free-to-play or micro-transaction game, but my cursory review suggests there are a few problems to adoption.

• Marketing: If no one knows about your game, no one will play it. Most free-to-play MMO wallow in obscurity.
• Distribution: While online distribution may be the future, it’s also a roadblock to paying. I, for one, am not about to buy a membership with a download hosting site so that I can get a free-to-play game quick. Sure, there are torrents, but a lack of peers, torrent download throttling by providers and port-forwarding configuration can make it difficult, impossible or very slow to obtain a free-to-play game. This is where Dofus and Runescape succeed. Runescape plays in-browser and the required files download quickly. Dofus is a client installation, but is very small and downloads in seconds.
• Quality: Many of the free to play games out there are built by small shops or are failed subscription MMO converted to freemium or microtransaction models. A shitty game is a shitty game. Making it free doesn’t make bugs acceptable.
• Content: Many the free-to-play games I’ve tried are short on the hand-built tactically challenging content that makes a triple-A game … a hit. WoW is well known for its RAIDS requiring flawless execution of complex strategies. Often these free games seem to rely on simple fedex or kill X foozle type quests, sometimes auto-generated. Unless your absolutely new to MMOdom, it won’t hold your attention long.
• Business Model: Not all free-to-play games are equal. Some limit you to a tiny section of the world. Some let you log in but essentially make it impossible to participate in the game without immediately engaging in microtransactions. When players are asked, too early, to open their wallets, they’ll more often leave than stay. Players have to be gently eased into parting with their money.

Whether Runes of Magic will succeed, is a difficult to predict. The world is screaming for a high-quality, fully 3D, free-to-play WoW clone (as Runes of Magic is purported to be).

Distribution: The Runes of Magic beta client requires a download by torrent (fail) or a membership at a download site.

Marketing: the game has attracted a high rating on MMORPG.com.

Quality and Content are both still covered by NDA. The business model is item-mall / micro-transaction. But not all item-malls are the same. The sorts of things for sale and the impact of the item-mall on game play are the important aspects. Unfortunately, this is again covered by NDA.

I expect Runes of Magic will succeed, in the sense that it will launch on time, gather a faithful following and be profitable. I certainly do not expect it to reach numbers like WoW or Runescape. I’d guess a few hundred-thousand active players by the end of 2009. Of course, the chances of active player numbers being released is unlikely.

Aion
(Wikipedia)

I’m sure Aion will be all the rage … just not here in North America.

2009 won’t be the year the Asian MMO invades North America. It’ll be another decade at least before North America becomes the low cost telephone call center for rich Asian economies. Once that happens, Asian MMO’s will take off as we seek to integrate with our new Eastern overlords. That said, flying is fscking cool!

Knowing nothing about this game, I would guess that game-play will be dominated by Asian sensibilities and hard-smack PvP which only ever seems to go over with a relatively small crowd in North America. Launched in late November in Korea, the game is reputedly kicking ass there. Of course, they have Starcraft on TV.

Champions Online
(Wikipedia)

Champions Online will launch late in 2009. While a spring launch is scheduled, history teaches us that MMO never launch on time. Claims that the game will be available on PC and console day-1 will not come to fruition. Subscription numbers will be low enough to warrant NEVER releasing a number (but the consensus rumor will be less than 100,000). When millions of subscribers fail to show, executives will attempt a micro-transaction model.

Tuebit’s opinion: The video looks rather boring, if you ask me. I didn’t at all feel heroic watching it. Really, there’s only so many people that dream in spandex. This title may well attract a devote following, but there will be no big splash.

Tachevert’s opinion: I’ve re-subscribed to City of Heroes more than any other MMO… but my re-subscriptions rarely last more than a month. DC Universe Online looked really cool at Comic-Con, but it’s likely a 2010 release. Sigh. Oh, we were talking about Champions Online? Eh… This game may get bored CoHers. Or it may not.

Chronicles of Spellborn
(Wikipedia)

Spellborn, already available in Europe and soon to be released under a freemium business model in North America, may have some potential.

The freemium model is interesting … I assume this implies digital distribution options. A lot of people may try this game that otherwise wouldn’t bother buying the box. How well they manage to convert players is another question. The game itself is heavily player skill based. The player must aim and optimally employ combat abilities. I suspect this different mechanic may appeal to players who are bored of the usual.

I guess I could have gone to the trouble of investigating how the game is fairing in Europe where it’s already released … but I can’t. So instead we’ll pull predictions of our …

Having consulted my mystical hat I’m going to make three bold predictions for this title. In 2009, world wide active players will exceed 500,000 and fall short of 1,000,000. Subscribers, if that number is ever released, be in the range of 250,000 to 500,000. A success by all measures and the only bloggable success in 2009.

Darkfall
(Wikipedia)

Darkfall, currently estimated to launch January 22, 2009 (in Europe) will be delayed again. But not delayed nearly enough.

Launch will be disastrous, but the game will none-the-less survive with a cult following above 100,000 players. These 100,000 players will be ridiculed on the blogosphere for playing their gank-happy bug-ridden eye-busting MMO. But finally, having the game of their dreams, they will silently accept this ridicule.

Sometime in 2009 assault and battery charges will be laid against angry PKers after someone stupidly suggests adding no-PvP ruleset servers.

The game will thrive in this niche for many years.

Earthrise
(Wikipedia)

Earthrise won’t launch in 2009. If it does, it will be a miserable failure. History teaches us that small indy first time MMO developers in distant places fail spectacularly. Yeah, we’re bitter about Dark and Light.

Jumpgate Evolution
(Wikipedia)

Jumpgate Evolution will launch to notable hype, after delaying launch to late 2009.

The purported features most attractive are also the most technically difficult … a bad sign, indeed.

• Real Time Twitchy Dog Fights: In a MMO … yeah … right.
• Explore a Huge and Varied Universe: Look, the cloudy bits on that planet swirl to the left!
• Stunning Graphics but still Highly Accessible for low end PC’s: Un-huh. See next.
• Huge Space Battles: Un-huh. See previous.
• Dynamic Player Driven World: You mean economy. And yeah, that’s great, if you can manage to avoid hyper-stupid-inflation.

First off, EVE took years to build to level it’s at. It is now the politics and personae of the players of Eve that are its largest assets. New MMO on the block isn’t going to yank that away. Especially if they miss on ANY of their planned features.

Initially hyped, numbers will peak fast. Disappointed with bugs and the lack of promised characteristics, players will flee faster. If numbers are ever released, they won’t exceed 100,000.

Stargate Worlds
(Wikipedia)

Hmmm. This game was originally slated for release in late 2008, later amended to early 2009. Given the melt-down in the financial markets, I suspect this title, however close it might be to completion, is unlikely to see light in 2009. I suspect there isn’t a lot of money available for speculation in a hit driven business. It takes mega money to polish, launch and operate a MMO, and they seemingly haven’t got much. It’s a shame, because there were TV ads for it just a month ago!

Tachevert rants: And we’ll continue not to see any successful MMORPGs that use a modern or sci-fi setting and a focus on ranged combat mechanics. When can I adventure without a tank? Or if I have a tank, it’ll be a giant 20-ton mass of steel and destruction that I’m driving! WHEN?!??!?

That’s our predictions for 2009.

-Tuebit and Tachevert