In our previous Predictions for 2009, we focused exclusively on “anticipated” (as defined by MMORPG.com) MMO’s scheduled for release in North America in 2009. Today, in possibly the first of several articles, we focus on predictions for the current Goliath of games, World of Warcraft.
This article on the International Business Times details the growth of Blizzard’s behemoth MMORPG. We dissected this data a little bit and came up with a couple of estimates, as detailed below.
Read on for WorldIV’s predictions for WoW subscriber numbers.
WoW has shown a consistent, stable annual growth rate of around 12 to 13 percent, excluding aberrent phases like initial launch and the release of Wrath of the Lich King. However, 12 to 13 percent will see it fall just short of hitting 13 million subscribers. A logarithmic projection of subscriber data predicts that WoW would hit over 14.5 million subscribers by the end of 2009, but if the first year’s growth is removed, this estimate drops to around 13 million.
So, the question is, how many subscribers will WoW have by Year’s End, 2009?
WorldIV WoW Prediction Math
By days (365 days of growth)
@9000 / day (upper): 14785000
Clearly, it won’t keep up this feverish pace.
@5430 / day (average): 13481950
WoW comfortably passes 13M if we average the “stable” daily growth data.
@3500 / day (lower): 12777500
This assumes growth shrinks back to at least its low point.
By annual growth rate
By 30% growth: 14950000
Again, it can’t keep up the feverish pace.
By 13% growth: 12995000
Oooh … pushing the edge of 13 million.
By 12% growth: 12880000
Discarding aberrent data (like initial launch), 13M is a definite stretch.
WoW might well boast 12 million subscribers in 2009, but will not boast 13 million (whether it ever will, I’ll leave for a future prediction). With no new expansions in 2009, I see no reason for sudden growth. And it’s getting a little long in the tooth.
The boost WoW is enjoying from WotLK will be short lived. Shorter lived than the first expansion. This isn’t new players … it’s old timers coming back to see what’s new. They’ll enjoy the shiny a few weeks and be just as bored as they were the first time they put their account on hold.
In Asia, the plethora of micro-transactions games (and games of increasing quality) will limit growth. In North America, WoW survives only because there’s no alternative. Sooner or later, people will get bored, and leave in search of other activities.
The biggest single hit against WoW will be …. Diablo III. Let’s face it, Diablo III will be fscking huge. And battlenet competes strongly with MMO. Account cancellations will be epic as people savor that Diablo goodness. So Diablo III doesn’t have a launch date yet. Replace Diablo III with Starcraft II, and my argument stands.
MMOGchart shows no indication whatsoever that WoW growth is tapering. I think it’ll go from its current 11.5M number to break 13M in 2009. It’s still by far the most polished, well-executed MMO out there.
Even if the core mechanic is stale grind-based DIKU-derivative, 2009 isn’t promising any new challengers to dethrone the King. The “exodus / return” waves of Age of Conan and Warhammer Online speak for themselves — WoW will stay strong, if for no other reason than because it’s established.
When you look to game with your friends, you’ll end up in WoW.
What do you think?
– Tuebit & Tachevert.
9 Comments
The last line of Tachevert’s prediction, “When you look to game with your friends, you’ll end up in WoW.”, is exactly the reason that I don’t play WoW anymore. The game is so huge with so many servers that when you meet people in real life who also play the game, the odds that they are on your server are astronomically against you. Asking people to pay to move or to start over is a pain and kind of rude since friends aren’t exclusive, and playing on multiple servers seems like too much effort to keep all those characters leveled up to play with others… I got tired of not being able to play with all of my friends.
One of these days, a company is going to make a game that separates the play server from the login/character server, so that any group of friends can all pick the same server at the time of login in order to play together, instead of having to had picked the same server at the time of creation.
When I resubscribed this time, I finally transferred to a server where I knew folks, because the East/West coast time difference killed my ability to play with my friends. I’d sure be up for easier server movement!
You mean, “find other activities,” like go outside and play flag football with REAL people?
They’re all real people. No computer could suck as much as many of the folks I’ve PUGged with!
I even traveled to the world of Salt Lake City, UT to interact with other REAL flag football players, Tachevert… get some sun.
Can you actually call flag football “real” in any meaningful context?
I left WoW a few months ago when it became very apparent that the hardcore PvPers and Arena goers were calling the shots. WoW is very old news and offers little new to the genre at this point. Its like last seasons fashions, pretty but out.
Update:
Wow wins Guiness Record for 11.6 million subscribers, June 5th, 2009 … 6 months and only a 100K gain. I wonder if WoW will even make 12 million this year. Could WoW have reached it’s zenith? Will 2010 be the year of server merges?
For Jason, the old classic RuneScape has always run on this system. It’s a very primitive game (graphics/gameplay/everything) but it’s incredibly user friendly, Blizzard needs to focus more on allowing people to play with their friends without having to pay 25-30$ to do it(and thats switching from 1 group to another, why can’t we all play together?).
Pugs are scrubs
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